Exports
The 2006 Philippine export growth of 14% to $47.03 billion outperformed the government's growth target of 10%
This is despite the decline in exports by in December (the first drop in 13 months), as the strong peso made the country's exports more expensive for foreign buyers. In December, exports fell 3.8% year-on-year to $3.68 billion after a 10.7% gain in November.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
Investor enthusiasm over the country's improving economy has started to translate into significant grwth in Foreign Direct Investment. For the first 11 months of 2006, FDIs reached $ 2 billion with November inflows reaching $ 46 million. This is the highest since 2001.
Investor confidence was boosted by the solid macroeconomic fundamentals particularly the improvement in the government's fiscal position and the steady decline in inflation rate.
"Hot Money"
Foreign investments in Philippine stocks, bonds and other financial instrumens stood at $252.52 million in January, more than reversing an outflow of $115.47 million a year earlier.
Net inflows for the whole of 2006 went up by 24% and reached $2.602 billion, about $498.4 million more than the total inflow in 2005 which was at $2.103 billion.
According to BSP Governor Amando Tetangco, the development reflected continuing bullish sentiment on the country's economic prospects following evidence of sustained improvement in economic and financial indicators.
He cited the continued slowdown in inflation to 4.3% in December, a better-than-expected balance of payments surplus of $3.77 billion in 2006 and the reduction in the fiscal deficit to $62.2 billion in 2006.
reference / source: The Philippine Star; Business Pages February 10, 2007 - Saturday
Saturday, February 10, 2007
Friday, February 9, 2007
The Philippine Stockmarket Rebounds - February 09, 2007
The Philippine stockmarket bounces back after the past day's downtrend. It easily hurdled the 3,200 level as bargain hunters came back in a big way. The economic good news that have been filtering the past week had investors just waiting on the sidelines for a signal to buy in the market.
The day's market February 9 ,2007
PSEi previous close: 3196.08 (Feb 08)
time-----------up / down------------PSEi-----------PhP vs $----------PhP vs $ volume
9:31----------down 2.99-----------3193.09
9:45----------up 28.76 -----------3224.84----------48.347------------Php 49.50 mn
9:47----------up 32.97------------3229.05
9:56----------up 49.60------------3245.68
9:58----------up 52.71------------3248.79
10:00--------up 54.76------------3250.84
10:01--------up 57.60------------3253.68
10:11---------up 55.16-----------3251.24
10:16----------up 57.00---------3253.08
10:19-----------------------------------------------48.340-----------------87.50mn
10:23----------up57.83----------3253.91
10:34----------up 59.39--------3255.47
10:48----------up 59.29---------3255.37
10:56----------up 59.29---------3255.37
10:59-----------------------------------------------48.313----------------189.87mn
11:00----------up 59.91---------3255.99
11:02----------up 61.63---------3257.71
the day's high
11:08----------up60.32---------3256.40
11:10----------up59.04----------3255.12
11:21----------up53.05----------3249.13
11:31----------up47.98-----------3244.06
11:36----------up44.24----------3240.32
11:42----------up46.96---------3243.04
11:45----------up 49.28---------3245.36
11:50----------up45.77---------3241.85
11:56----------up43.71---------3239.79
11:59----------up 50.11--------3246.19
12:00---------up49.73----------3245.81 close
The rebound was led by PLDT as it had corrected from a high of Php 2820 which was attained on January 25, 2007. It gained PhP 90 for the day to closse at PhP 2550 from PhP 2470 previously.
There is liquidity in the market system and fundamentals are intact. As mentioned in the previous days'; deep corrections may be seen as buying windows.
The day's market February 9 ,2007
PSEi previous close: 3196.08 (Feb 08)
time-----------up / down------------PSEi-----------PhP vs $----------PhP vs $ volume
9:31----------down 2.99-----------3193.09
9:45----------up 28.76 -----------3224.84----------48.347------------Php 49.50 mn
9:47----------up 32.97------------3229.05
9:56----------up 49.60------------3245.68
9:58----------up 52.71------------3248.79
10:00--------up 54.76------------3250.84
10:01--------up 57.60------------3253.68
10:11---------up 55.16-----------3251.24
10:16----------up 57.00---------3253.08
10:19-----------------------------------------------48.340-----------------87.50mn
10:23----------up57.83----------3253.91
10:34----------up 59.39--------3255.47
10:48----------up 59.29---------3255.37
10:56----------up 59.29---------3255.37
10:59-----------------------------------------------48.313----------------189.87mn
11:00----------up 59.91---------3255.99
11:02----------up 61.63---------3257.71
the day's high
11:08----------up60.32---------3256.40
11:10----------up59.04----------3255.12
11:21----------up53.05----------3249.13
11:31----------up47.98-----------3244.06
11:36----------up44.24----------3240.32
11:42----------up46.96---------3243.04
11:45----------up 49.28---------3245.36
11:50----------up45.77---------3241.85
11:56----------up43.71---------3239.79
11:59----------up 50.11--------3246.19
12:00---------up49.73----------3245.81 close
The rebound was led by PLDT as it had corrected from a high of Php 2820 which was attained on January 25, 2007. It gained PhP 90 for the day to closse at PhP 2550 from PhP 2470 previously.
There is liquidity in the market system and fundamentals are intact. As mentioned in the previous days'; deep corrections may be seen as buying windows.
Thursday, February 8, 2007
Gross International Reserves (GIR) at record high
Gross International Reserves
The country's gross international reserves hit $23.76 bn in January, rising by $ 790 mn from December and $ 2 bn more than the recorded level for the same period last year.
This end-January GIR level could cover about 4.6 months of imports of goods and payments of reserves and income.
Peso vs $
The peso also hit its highest level in nearly six years. It went to a high of PhP 48.355 to the dollar before closing at PhP 48.365
source / reference : The Philippine Star; Business pages February 8, 2007
The day's market - February 8 , 2007
The PSEi closed previously at 3232.39 and was seen to consolidate as a correction has set in. The market tried to bounce back from the previous days' losses very early in the trading day and was even up by about 5 points at one point. Selling momentum built up from the previous days immediately dragged the market lower towards the 3200 support level.
time-------------up / down-------------PSEi------------PhP vs $----------PhP volume
9:39----------------------------------------------------------48.433-----------84.00mn
10:12---------------------------------------------------------48.433----------138.00mn
10:45------------down 24.81------------3207.58
11:15------------down 21.55------------3210.84
11:19----------------------------------------------------------48.437----------287.00mn
peso slightly weaker against the dollar
11:20------------down 25.80------------3206.59
11:32------------down 34.60------------3197.79
market broke down the 3200 support and drop accelerates
11:43------------down 40.98-----------3191.41
the days low was at 3190.74. the market tries to stay near the 3,200 level
11:58-------------down 38.34----------3194.15
12:00------------down 36.31-----------3196.08
The market has gone down about a hundred points in just three days (on Feb 6 - tuesday, it hit an intraday high of 3,308.58.). The support now is at 3,155 to 3170 level and seems to be the likely target.
But as the market ended just a tad below the 3200 level, it may try to hover around and try to attempt to rebound above. Bargain hunters may step in as they see some picks. Also, activity is seen in the second and third liners and this will keep investors buoyant
The drop in the market is still a healthy correction and these dips can be seen as buying windows. The PSEi right now needs to retrace after going up nearly 10% year since end-December 2006.
The country's gross international reserves hit $23.76 bn in January, rising by $ 790 mn from December and $ 2 bn more than the recorded level for the same period last year.
This end-January GIR level could cover about 4.6 months of imports of goods and payments of reserves and income.
Peso vs $
The peso also hit its highest level in nearly six years. It went to a high of PhP 48.355 to the dollar before closing at PhP 48.365
source / reference : The Philippine Star; Business pages February 8, 2007
The day's market - February 8 , 2007
The PSEi closed previously at 3232.39 and was seen to consolidate as a correction has set in. The market tried to bounce back from the previous days' losses very early in the trading day and was even up by about 5 points at one point. Selling momentum built up from the previous days immediately dragged the market lower towards the 3200 support level.
time-------------up / down-------------PSEi------------PhP vs $----------PhP volume
9:39----------------------------------------------------------48.433-----------84.00mn
10:12---------------------------------------------------------48.433----------138.00mn
10:45------------down 24.81------------3207.58
11:15------------down 21.55------------3210.84
11:19----------------------------------------------------------48.437----------287.00mn
peso slightly weaker against the dollar
11:20------------down 25.80------------3206.59
11:32------------down 34.60------------3197.79
market broke down the 3200 support and drop accelerates
11:43------------down 40.98-----------3191.41
the days low was at 3190.74. the market tries to stay near the 3,200 level
11:58-------------down 38.34----------3194.15
12:00------------down 36.31-----------3196.08
The market has gone down about a hundred points in just three days (on Feb 6 - tuesday, it hit an intraday high of 3,308.58.). The support now is at 3,155 to 3170 level and seems to be the likely target.
But as the market ended just a tad below the 3200 level, it may try to hover around and try to attempt to rebound above. Bargain hunters may step in as they see some picks. Also, activity is seen in the second and third liners and this will keep investors buoyant
The drop in the market is still a healthy correction and these dips can be seen as buying windows. The PSEi right now needs to retrace after going up nearly 10% year since end-December 2006.
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
January 2007 Inflation Figure
Inflation
Inflation was lower in January, at just 3.9%. It was the lowest in more than three years, from 4.3% in December.
" The 3.9% inflation rate further confirms the benign inflation outlook. It provides additional flexibility for monetary policy. This will further support greater economic resilience and help advance financial reforms and strengthen market confidence"
-Bangko Sentral ng pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. -
reference / source: BusinessMirror February 7, 2007
Peso vs the Dollar
The peso rose to a six year high agains the dollar as indications of a benign inflation environment for the year further buoyed market sentiment on the country's economic fundamentals.
It closed at PhP 48.505, a steep 16 1/2 centavo climb from Monday.
reference / source: BusinessWorld February 7, 2007
The days' market February 7, 2007
Today at the Philippine Stock Exchange
PSEi Previous close: 3271.97 (February 6, 2007)
time -----------up / down ----------PSEi ----------Peso vs $ ---------Peso vs $ volume
9:31 am -------up 12.49---------- 3284.46
9:37---------------------------------------------------48.43 -----------103.50 mn
9:38---------- up 2.89----------- 3274.86
The Philippine stock market reacted positively on a knee-jerk reaction on the strength of the peso and better than expected inflation figures.
9:43----------- down 1.62--------- 3270.35
9:54 -----------down 10.78 ---------3261.19
9:58 -----------down 6.67---------- 3265.30
10:10---------- down 12.99 ---------3258.98
10:13 -----------down 14.71 ---------3257.26
10:15 -----------down 15.25--------- 3256.72---------- 48.406----------- 254.00 mn
10:18 -----------down 18.54--------- 3253.43
10:23----------- down 26.30--------- 3245.67
10:26----------- down 28.63--------- 3243.34
10:30----------- down 29.15--------- 3242.82
10:33----------- down 30.93---------- 3241.04
10:35----------- down 32.70---------- 3239.27 ---------48.404----------- 287.00mn
10:42----------- down 32.16----------- 3239.81
10:45-----------down 35.68 ---------- 3236.29
10:54----------- down 40.52----------- 3231.45
the market seems to have bottomed out for the day and tries to bounce back
10:55----------- down 36.81----------- 3235.16
10:57----------- down 34.04----------- 3237.93
10:59----------- down 33.30----------- 3238.77
11:01 -----------down 32.83----------- 3239.14
11:08----------- down 31.42------------ 3240.55
11:15------------ down 30.97----------- 3241.00 -----------48.399---------- 353.00mn
11:20------------ down 29.52----------- 3242.45
11:35------------------------------------------------------- 48.398 -----------361.00mn
11:42------------ down 26.91------------ 3245.06
11:46------------ down 26.61------------ 3245.36
the market tried to rally above the 3250 level, its previous support but selling in the final minutes had it closing near its day's low
11:54 ------------down 29.76------------ 3242.21
11:58 ------------down 30.95------------ 3241.33
11:59 -------------------------------------------------------48.373----------- 471.00mn
12:00 ------------down 39.58------------ 3232.39
Market close
reference: Maktrade system
The market failed to stay above the 3250 support. Correction may continue on momentum and the new support is pegged at 3200-3220.
Considering the good economic figures that came out, the decline is still a healthy one and may be taken as opportunities for bargain hunting.
Trade in the next two days may be lackluster with a downward bias ahead of the weekend and the coming chinese new years celebration. A rebound may not be discounted as buying is seen to come in near support levels.
Inflation was lower in January, at just 3.9%. It was the lowest in more than three years, from 4.3% in December.
" The 3.9% inflation rate further confirms the benign inflation outlook. It provides additional flexibility for monetary policy. This will further support greater economic resilience and help advance financial reforms and strengthen market confidence"
-Bangko Sentral ng pilipinas Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. -
reference / source: BusinessMirror February 7, 2007
Peso vs the Dollar
The peso rose to a six year high agains the dollar as indications of a benign inflation environment for the year further buoyed market sentiment on the country's economic fundamentals.
It closed at PhP 48.505, a steep 16 1/2 centavo climb from Monday.
reference / source: BusinessWorld February 7, 2007
The days' market February 7, 2007
Today at the Philippine Stock Exchange
PSEi Previous close: 3271.97 (February 6, 2007)
time -----------up / down ----------PSEi ----------Peso vs $ ---------Peso vs $ volume
9:31 am -------up 12.49---------- 3284.46
9:37---------------------------------------------------48.43 -----------103.50 mn
9:38---------- up 2.89----------- 3274.86
The Philippine stock market reacted positively on a knee-jerk reaction on the strength of the peso and better than expected inflation figures.
9:43----------- down 1.62--------- 3270.35
9:54 -----------down 10.78 ---------3261.19
9:58 -----------down 6.67---------- 3265.30
10:10---------- down 12.99 ---------3258.98
10:13 -----------down 14.71 ---------3257.26
10:15 -----------down 15.25--------- 3256.72---------- 48.406----------- 254.00 mn
10:18 -----------down 18.54--------- 3253.43
10:23----------- down 26.30--------- 3245.67
10:26----------- down 28.63--------- 3243.34
10:30----------- down 29.15--------- 3242.82
10:33----------- down 30.93---------- 3241.04
10:35----------- down 32.70---------- 3239.27 ---------48.404----------- 287.00mn
10:42----------- down 32.16----------- 3239.81
10:45-----------down 35.68 ---------- 3236.29
10:54----------- down 40.52----------- 3231.45
the market seems to have bottomed out for the day and tries to bounce back
10:55----------- down 36.81----------- 3235.16
10:57----------- down 34.04----------- 3237.93
10:59----------- down 33.30----------- 3238.77
11:01 -----------down 32.83----------- 3239.14
11:08----------- down 31.42------------ 3240.55
11:15------------ down 30.97----------- 3241.00 -----------48.399---------- 353.00mn
11:20------------ down 29.52----------- 3242.45
11:35------------------------------------------------------- 48.398 -----------361.00mn
11:42------------ down 26.91------------ 3245.06
11:46------------ down 26.61------------ 3245.36
the market tried to rally above the 3250 level, its previous support but selling in the final minutes had it closing near its day's low
11:54 ------------down 29.76------------ 3242.21
11:58 ------------down 30.95------------ 3241.33
11:59 -------------------------------------------------------48.373----------- 471.00mn
12:00 ------------down 39.58------------ 3232.39
Market close
reference: Maktrade system
The market failed to stay above the 3250 support. Correction may continue on momentum and the new support is pegged at 3200-3220.
Considering the good economic figures that came out, the decline is still a healthy one and may be taken as opportunities for bargain hunting.
Trade in the next two days may be lackluster with a downward bias ahead of the weekend and the coming chinese new years celebration. A rebound may not be discounted as buying is seen to come in near support levels.
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
New Record Low for 91-day T-bill rate
Treasury Bill Auctions
Yesterday, the 91-day Treasury bill rate dropped to 3.008% a new record low. This was from the 3.171% recorded at the January 22 auction.
Treasury officials increased the award as it was reported that the T-bill sale was seven times oversubscribed amid liiquidity and abscence of instruments where the market can excess funds.
* the 91 day t-bill is used by banks as a benchmark for loan rates
182 -day t-bill 3.473% from 3.665%
364 -day t-bill 3.998% from 4.218%
Total awards amounted to PhP 5.6bn or PhP 1.6bn over the Php 4 bn offered.
Reference : The Philippine Star; Business pages
The day's market - February 6, 2007
The Philippine stock market started strong and broke above the 3,300 level early on the trading day. The PSEi was up by about 27 points at one time and reached an intraday high of 3,282.02.
Selling pressure however was felt by midtrading and prompted a correction. The market ended lower by 9.93 points (-0.30%) to close the day at 3,271.97. This reversal could signal a minor pullback after the 6th straight session of advancing.
The market is likely to consolidate between the 3,250 - 3,300 level as it needs a stronger base before advancing further to try to test the all time high level at around 3,447 which was achieved on February 1997.
* FLI resumed trading after completion of its secondary offering at PhP 1.605. It closed for the day at PhP 1.82 after opening at Php 1.80 reaching a high of PhP 1.92
Yesterday, the 91-day Treasury bill rate dropped to 3.008% a new record low. This was from the 3.171% recorded at the January 22 auction.
Treasury officials increased the award as it was reported that the T-bill sale was seven times oversubscribed amid liiquidity and abscence of instruments where the market can excess funds.
* the 91 day t-bill is used by banks as a benchmark for loan rates
182 -day t-bill 3.473% from 3.665%
364 -day t-bill 3.998% from 4.218%
Total awards amounted to PhP 5.6bn or PhP 1.6bn over the Php 4 bn offered.
Reference : The Philippine Star; Business pages
The day's market - February 6, 2007
The Philippine stock market started strong and broke above the 3,300 level early on the trading day. The PSEi was up by about 27 points at one time and reached an intraday high of 3,282.02.
Selling pressure however was felt by midtrading and prompted a correction. The market ended lower by 9.93 points (-0.30%) to close the day at 3,271.97. This reversal could signal a minor pullback after the 6th straight session of advancing.
The market is likely to consolidate between the 3,250 - 3,300 level as it needs a stronger base before advancing further to try to test the all time high level at around 3,447 which was achieved on February 1997.
* FLI resumed trading after completion of its secondary offering at PhP 1.605. It closed for the day at PhP 1.82 after opening at Php 1.80 reaching a high of PhP 1.92
Friday, February 2, 2007
The stockmarket reacts positively on the news
The days' market: February 2, 2007
The stockmarket continued its run up as the news of the dwindling budgetary deficit perked up investors. Philippine Stock Exhange Index (PSEi) ended the day higher by 23.92 pts (+0.74%) to end at 3269.18.
For the week, all sectors advanced and the best performer was the Property sector which ended higher by 8.11% in the past five trading days.
Other important data for investors:
Gold price $652.65 / ounce as of February 1, 2007
T-bill 91-day (weekly auction date 22 january 07)
3.171% down from 3.795% previously
MART1 RATES
February 1, 2007 ( source: BusinessWorld Friday-Saturday. February 2-3, 2007)
Benchmark Interest Mart 1
Rates 2/1/07
1 month 3.7393
3 months 3.9975
6months 4.7839
1 year 5.0179
3 years 5.7250
5 years 6.1154
10 years 6.9125
We see how news and economic data affect the equities market (stockmarket) and we can learn how to use this information in our investing decisions.
The stockmarket continued its run up as the news of the dwindling budgetary deficit perked up investors. Philippine Stock Exhange Index (PSEi) ended the day higher by 23.92 pts (+0.74%) to end at 3269.18.
For the week, all sectors advanced and the best performer was the Property sector which ended higher by 8.11% in the past five trading days.
Other important data for investors:
Gold price $652.65 / ounce as of February 1, 2007
T-bill 91-day (weekly auction date 22 january 07)
3.171% down from 3.795% previously
MART1 RATES
February 1, 2007 ( source: BusinessWorld Friday-Saturday. February 2-3, 2007)
Benchmark Interest Mart 1
Rates 2/1/07
1 month 3.7393
3 months 3.9975
6months 4.7839
1 year 5.0179
3 years 5.7250
5 years 6.1154
10 years 6.9125
We see how news and economic data affect the equities market (stockmarket) and we can learn how to use this information in our investing decisions.
Thursday, February 1, 2007
News that matters for investment decisions.
Gross Domestic Product ( GDP )
The Philippine GDP grew by 5.4% in 2006. The economy got a boost from strong exports and dollar inflows from overseas workers. It just missed the 5.5% target of the government because of the series of typhoons that hit the country in the last quarter. The figure however is still better than the 5.0% growth of 2005
The contry's gross national product (GNP) also rose 6.2 %, as compared with 5.6% in 2005. GNP is GDP plus income earned abroad.
Budget Deficit
The Philippine government just announced that its budget deficit for 2006 stood at P62.2 billion ($1.27 billion) or 1.04 % of gross domestic product. According to the release, this is the third year in a row that it had outperformed annual target.
The figure was less than half of the P125 billion expected for the period.
The expected budget deficit for 2007 is P63 billion and by 2008 it is targetted to end nearly a decade of fiscal shortfalls in 2008.
* Source : Inquirer.net
One of the musts in investing is knowing the business condition andtherefore the investment climate. In this case the state of the Philippine economy is what matters first. Keep reading the business pages and watch our for the economic news that comes out. This will give us an idea how investment may perform and will guide us in our making decisions.
Since these news just came out, we start with them because in investing, it is important for the right information to get to the right people at the right time.
A positive and increasing GDP signifies growth in the economy. Generally, investing is better in a growing economy. The GDP growth posted was a modest one but signals an improving business climate. A target growth of at least 6.1 to 6.7% for 2007 was set.
If the government operates on a budget deficit, it needs to source fund to plug these shortfalls. They have to borrow abroad and thereby increase our foreign debt. They also crowd out local borrowers for available funds. These lead to to an increae in interest rates. Higher rates means higher costs of doing business.
Currently, local interest rates are low enough ( T-bills are just around 3.5% and three year bonds just above 5.%) to spur businesses to expand, banks to lend, buyers to purchase real estate and properties and excess liquid funds to buy in the stock market (now near its 10 year highs - PSEi closed at 3245.26 today).
The Philippine GDP grew by 5.4% in 2006. The economy got a boost from strong exports and dollar inflows from overseas workers. It just missed the 5.5% target of the government because of the series of typhoons that hit the country in the last quarter. The figure however is still better than the 5.0% growth of 2005
The contry's gross national product (GNP) also rose 6.2 %, as compared with 5.6% in 2005. GNP is GDP plus income earned abroad.
Budget Deficit
The Philippine government just announced that its budget deficit for 2006 stood at P62.2 billion ($1.27 billion) or 1.04 % of gross domestic product. According to the release, this is the third year in a row that it had outperformed annual target.
The figure was less than half of the P125 billion expected for the period.
The expected budget deficit for 2007 is P63 billion and by 2008 it is targetted to end nearly a decade of fiscal shortfalls in 2008.
* Source : Inquirer.net
One of the musts in investing is knowing the business condition andtherefore the investment climate. In this case the state of the Philippine economy is what matters first. Keep reading the business pages and watch our for the economic news that comes out. This will give us an idea how investment may perform and will guide us in our making decisions.
Since these news just came out, we start with them because in investing, it is important for the right information to get to the right people at the right time.
A positive and increasing GDP signifies growth in the economy. Generally, investing is better in a growing economy. The GDP growth posted was a modest one but signals an improving business climate. A target growth of at least 6.1 to 6.7% for 2007 was set.
If the government operates on a budget deficit, it needs to source fund to plug these shortfalls. They have to borrow abroad and thereby increase our foreign debt. They also crowd out local borrowers for available funds. These lead to to an increae in interest rates. Higher rates means higher costs of doing business.
Currently, local interest rates are low enough ( T-bills are just around 3.5% and three year bonds just above 5.%) to spur businesses to expand, banks to lend, buyers to purchase real estate and properties and excess liquid funds to buy in the stock market (now near its 10 year highs - PSEi closed at 3245.26 today).
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